No Bull Agent

Mortgage Market Update and Forecast for the Week of August 2, 2010

Information in this post is provided by Ron McGowan, Senior Mortgage Consultant with PrimeLending.  He is a guest blogger who provides us information from a lender’s perspective.  For additional information on Ron, please visit his website at ILoanSanDiego.com.

Inside Lending Newsletter from Ron McGowan for the week of August 2, 2010

Market Update
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…Last week began nicely with June New Home Sales UP 23.6% to an annual rate of 330,000, well ahead of expectations. This was a sharp rebound from May when New Home Sales sank to record lows not seen since 1963. This volatility of course is all about the homebuyer tax credit (requiring a contract by April 30 and a closing by June 30, now extended to September 30). Consequently, new homes sold at a 422,000 pace in April, fell to a 267,000 pace in May, then went to 330,000 in June.

Demographic trends say sales should continue to rebound, as we eventually need to sell new homes at a 950,000 annual rate to meet population growth and replace teardowns. The supply of unsold new homes is now down to 7.6 months, just above the ideal 6-month level. Actual inventories are down to 210,000, their lowest level since 1968, when there were 35% fewer people around.

We also saw that home prices rose 4.6% in May, year-over-year, as tracked by the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller National Home Price Indices. Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: august 2, california, kaplan, market, mortgage, nobullagent, rate, ron mcgowan, san diego, update

Market Update and Forecast for the week of July 19, 2010

Information in this post is provided by Ron McGowan, Senior Mortgage Consultant with PrimeLending.  He is a guest blogger who provides us information from a lender’s perspective.  For additional information on Ron, please visit his website at ILoanSanDiego.com.

Inside Lending Newsletter from Ron McGowan for the week of July 19, 2010

Market Update
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…Some analysts feel the homebuyer tax credits artificially boosted the housing market by pushing forward home sales that would have happened later.  Others feel most buyers would have bought anyway.  In any case, there’s now concern about a coming drop in sales.  Well, June sales figures should still benefit from activity spurred on by the tax credits.  And tax credit sales should even help monthly reports through September, now that buyers in contract on April 30 have been given until September 30 to close.

Nonetheless, we ought to keep an eye on monthly Pending Home Sales, which track signed contracts that turn into sales a few months out.  Even though we may have a sales dip after the tax credit, the fact remains that near historic low mortgage interest rates are getting people back into the market.  These rates, combined with today’s prices, have made homes more affordable than they’ve been in years, letting many buyers move up to better neighborhoods with more choices.

But buyers shouldn’t wait.  The National Association of Realtors chief economist sees the median home price rising nationally 2% to 3% this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: california, july 19, kaplan, market, mortgage, nobullagent, primelending, prudential, rate, ron mcgowan, san diego, update

Mortgage Rate Update for the Week of July 11, 2010

Information in this post is provided by Greg Wickstrand, Home Loan Consultant for HomeServices Lending.  He is a guest blogger who provides us information from a lender’s perspective.  For additional posts by Greg, please visit his BLOG.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates this Week:  July 11, 2010
By:  Greg Wickstrand

Mortgage markets improved again last week — if only barely — throughout a holiday-shortened week devoid of “major” data and market conviction.

Up-and-down trading characterized the week which ended with mortgage rates slightly lower versus the week prior.

Mortgage rates have fallen in 4 consecutive weeks and are on an extended rally that dates back to mid-April.

This week, however, data returns and rates could reverse. Especially with inflation numbers are in play.

Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

Inflation is bad for mortgage rates because mortgage rates based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds.  When inflation pressures mount, the demand for mortgage-backed bonds wanes and that pushes bond prices down which, in turn, pushed bond yields (i.e. rates) up.

There’s three pieces of inflation-related news this week.

The first inflation-related story is the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday release of the minutes from its last meeting. Now, when the Fed adjourned June 23, it said “underlying inflation has trended lower“. However, there was more to the conversation that what the FOMC released in its post-meeting statement.

Markets will be looking for clues.

Then, Thursday, the Producer Price Index is released. Read the rest of this entry »

Tags: greg wickstrand, july 11, kaplan, Lending, market, mortgage, nobullagent, rate, update