Ken Kaplan discusses how the current real estate market has been effected by the swings in the stock market. In addition, he talks about the Bank of America seminar at the San Diego Convention Center. For more information on this seminar, visit www.bankofamerica.com/outreachevent.

Mortgage Market Update

Information in this post is provided by Greg Wickstrand, Home Loan Consultant for HomeServices Lending.  He is a guest blogger who provides us information from a lender’s perspective.  For additional posts by Greg, please visit his BLOG.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates this Week | November 1, 2010
By Greg Wickstrand

Mortgage markets remained highly volatile for the second straight week last week. Yet, over the course of 5 days, mortgage bonds ended the week relatively unchanged.

Conforming rates worsened Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday — rising as much as 3/8 percent as compared to the week prior — before settling lower through Thursday and Friday.

On the week overall, 30-year fixed rates worsened, 15-year fixed held steady, and 5-year ARMs improved.

And despite all the data released last week, it wasn’t the fundamentals that were causing rates to move. Instead, Wall Street was firmly focused on the Federal Reserve’s scheduled 2-day meeting this week; preoccupied with the likelihood of new Fed stimulus program.

The Fed’s meeting adjourns Wednesday and the group is widely expected to announce a new round of bond market support at that time.  Uncertainty over how big that package will be, however, is what’s causing rates to jump.

Market estimates range from $250 billion to over $1 trillion and when Wall Street expectations shifts toward the lower end of that range, mortgage rates have been rising. When expectations shifts toward the upper range, mortgage rates have been falling.

This is why it’s all eyes on the Fed this week. Once the Fed adjourns, there’s no more “expectation” — there’s only Fed commitment.

Other than the Federal Reserve’s get-together, there isn’t much new data due for release. The week’s calendar looks like this:

Monday:  Personal Income and Spending reports
Wednesday:  FOMC adjourns from its 2-day meeting
Thursday:  Initial and continuing jobless claim data
Friday:  Pending Home Sales, Jobs Report, Unemployment Rate

It’s unlikely that data will swing mortgage rates until after the Fed’s Wednesday adjournment, but, once that happens, expect bond market attention to shift to the October jobs report set for 8:30 AM ET release Friday morning.  If jobs data is strong, mortgage rates should rise.

All things considered, it’s dangerous to float a mortgage rate this week. If you’re not already locked, talk to your loan officer prior to Wednesday afternoon. Read Greg’s original post.

Look for future posts at www.NoBullAgent.com on issues to watch for in the mortgage market from local lenders in the San Diego area. When choosing a lender, we suggest you talk with a few to make sure you find a representative and company that works for you.  Having a strong relationship with your lender, especially in this market, can be crucial to a successful home buying experience.

To search available listings throughout San Diego County and Southern California.
To save your property searches and receive updates on new properties, please contact us or call at 888-466-2855.

Mortgage Market Update

Information in this post is provided by Ron McGowan, Senior Mortgage Consultant with PrimeLending.  He is a guest blogger who provides us information from a lender’s perspective.  For additional information on Ron, please visit his website at ILoanSanDiego.com.

Mortgage market update for the week of October 25, 2010…

Market Update
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE…Mortgage rates, already at historically low levels, have been sliding even further the last few weeks. Nonetheless, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey showed purchase applications down a bit from the week before.

But happily, applications for conventional purchase loans are actually at their highest level since the start of May, following the home buyer tax credit expiration on April 30. Of course, with today’s super low rates, demand for refinancings are also up – a healthy 24% over the week before, with refinance application volumes now close to their highest level all year.

Review of Last Week
ANOTHER WEEK UP…Yup, the stock market maintained its steady cruise upward, begun in September and continuing now for the first two weeks in October. Investors on Wall Street seem to be staying in positive, if cautious mode. The economy sends mixed signals, but stocks push relentlessly upward. All three major market indexes were up for the week, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the pack, delivering a very strong 2.8% gain, helped by good Q3 numbers from Intel and Google! 

On the negative side, the trade deficit expanded by $3.8 billion in August to $46.3 billion, which was larger than anticipated. New claims for unemployment insurance also increased by 13,000. Continuing claims, however, dropped to their lowest level in almost two years, but it’s unfortunately still a big number, at 4.399 million. Wholesale inflation inched ahead a bit, with the Producer Price Index up 0.4% in September and up 4.0% compared to a year ago. This, of course, isn’t great, although worries about deflation should be less in the headlines.

For good news, we saw consumer inflation stay well under control, with consumer prices edging up just 0.1% in September. This was less than expected and up only 1.1% versus a year ago, well within the Fed’s guidelines. Core consumer prices, which leave out food and energy, were unchanged for the month. These steady prices may be why retail sales were up 0.6% for the month, better than expected and giving evidence the consumer is trying to help the recovery.

For the week, the Dow ended UP 0.5%, to 11062.78; the S&P 500 was also UP 0.9%, to 1176.19; and the Nasdaq was UP 2.8%, to 2468.77.

It was a volatile week in the bond market, but prices held up well enough in certain areas. The FNMA 30-year 4.0% bond we watch ended down just 6 basis points for the week, closing at $103.00. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed national average mortgage rates for most mortgages trickling lower for another week, staying at historically low levels.

This Week’s Forecast
BUILDING PRODUCTS, BUILDING HOMES…This week’s economic reports begin and end with manufacturing readings, which are expected to still show a slow recovery. Monday’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization are expected to stay flat for September. Thursday we get the Philadelphia Fed Index of the state of manufacturing in that region, forecast to nudge up into positive territory.

In addition to building products, we’ll also get a look at building homes. Tuesday’s September Housing Starts should be down a bit from August and still hovering at a modest rate below 600,000. September Building Permits, showing how builders are feeling further out, are expected to be slightly under the Housing Starts number, indicating still cautious attitudes in that industry.

Federal Reserve Watch   
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months  With Fed chairman Ben Bernanke last Friday all but promising a second round of quantitative easing (QE-2), economists do not expect the Fed Funds Rate to move off its rock bottom level for quite some time.

Subscribe to Ron’s Inside Lending Newsletter at his website at ILoanSanDiego.com and click on the “Contact Me” page.

Look for future postings at www.NoBullAgent.com on issues to watch for in the mortgage market from local lenders in the San Diego area. When choosing a lender, we suggest you talk with a few to make sure you find a representative and company that works for you.  Having a strong relationship with your lender, especially in this market, can be crucial to a successful home buying experience.

To search available listings throughout San Diego County and Southern California, please click HERE.
To save your property searches and receive updates on new properties CONTACT US.